Someone with mastery of a subject, say baking, knows what will happen next. She grasps the implications of changing ingredients, oven temperature, or cooking times. A novice, on the other hand, is surprised by events and spends far more time cleaning up messes.

I made a prediction recently and it was all wrong. 

I’ve been working on a jigsaw puzzle design that depicts a crowd scene with more than 100 faces. I’m hoping to make it a Kickstarter project in August. It will be a fun puzzle to solve because of the detail of so many similar but different faces.

I thought it might be fun to include a few faces of people who have supported my projects. So two weeks ago, we invited folks to submit face photos. Based on the lackluster performance of previous contests, I predicted maybe a half dozen people would respond. My prediction was way off. I’ve been flooded with face photos—far too many to use.

This surprise thing keeps happening to me. I predict what will happen and then I’m surprised by what really happens. Will it ever stop?

Most of the pictures I received are excellent—straight on head shots with ample lighting and sharp details. I decided to arbitrarily limit myself to 36—six times more than I originally planned.

Here’s what the preliminary drawings look like in my sketchbook.

 Later, I add color to digital copies of my drawings. The result looks something like this. 

 And finally, the colored faces will be combined to make a crowd like this...but with far more people.

One more prediction from Don: I predict that my future predictions will be wildly inaccurate.

Don

PS: In July when I know who is going to be in the final puzzle design, I’ll try to contact those people by email.